A/B Test Design

Design a rigorous, actionable experiment plan from a test idea. No hand-waving — every section must be specific enough for an engineer to implement and an analyst to evaluate.

Process

1. Clarify the test idea. Parse the input to identify: the change being tested, the user segment affected, and the business context.
2. Formulate the hypothesis. Use the structured format: If we [change], then [metric] will [direction] by [amount] because [reason].
3. Define metrics. Pick ONE primary metric (the decision metric), 2-3 secondary metrics (supporting evidence), and 2-3 guardrail metrics (what must not degrade).
4. Design variants. Describe Control (current state) and Treatment(s) with enough detail to build.
5. Estimate sample size. Based on baseline conversion rate, minimum detectable effect (MDE), statistical significance (95%), and power (80%).
6. Estimate duration. Based on sample size and daily traffic. Flag if duration exceeds 4 weeks (test validity risk).
7. Define success criteria. How will you call the test — statistical significance threshold, practical significance threshold, and how to handle mixed results.
8. Identify risks. What could invalidate the test or cause harm.

Output Format

Experiment: [Name]

Hypothesis

If we [specific change], then [primary metric] will [increase/decrease] by [X%] because [causal reasoning based on user behavior].

Metrics

Type	Metric	Baseline	Target
Primary	[metric]	[current value]	[target value]
Secondary	[metric]	[current value]	—
Secondary	[metric]	[current value]	—
Guardrail	[metric]	[current value]	Must not drop below [threshold]
Guardrail	[metric]	[current value]	Must not drop below [threshold]

Variants

• Control: [Exact current experience]
• Treatment: [Exact change — specific enough to build]

Sample Size & Duration

• MDE: [X%]
• Baseline rate: [X%]
• Required sample per variant: [N]
• Estimated duration: [X days/weeks] at [Y daily visitors]
• Traffic allocation: [50/50 or other split + rationale]

Success Criteria

• Call winner if: [primary metric] reaches p < 0.05 AND practical lift >= [X%]
• Call inconclusive if: [conditions]
• Stop early if: [guardrail metric] degrades by more than [X%]

Risks & Mitigations

Pre-Launch Checklist

• QA both variants on all platforms
• Tracking events firing correctly
• Randomization unit confirmed (user/session/device)
• Exclusion criteria defined (internal users, bots)

Rules

• The hypothesis MUST include a predicted magnitude. "Will improve" is not a hypothesis — "will increase by 5-10%" is.
• One primary metric only. If you cannot pick one, the test is not ready.
• Guardrail metrics are mandatory. Every test can break something.
• If the estimated duration exceeds 4 weeks, flag it and suggest ways to reduce (narrower audience, larger MDE, higher traffic page).
• Always specify the randomization unit (user-level, not session-level, in most cases).
• Use Bash with Python to calculate sample size when baseline rate and MDE are known.
• If the input is vague, ask clarifying questions before designing. Do not guess.
• Be opinionated about what makes a good test. Push back on tests that are too small to detect, too broad to learn from, or testing something that should just be shipped.