Alternative Analysis Strategy

CIA SAT alternative analysis: generate multiple competing interpretations to prevent anchoring on a single explanation.

Method

1. alternative-futures builds 2-4 divergent scenarios from the same evidence base
2. What-If Analysis: systematically vary key variables to explore outcome sensitivity
3. Four Ways of Seeing: examine artifact through lenses of opportunity, risk, structure, and agency
4. probe-execution tests each alternative against available evidence
5. Diagnostic indicators identified that would discriminate between alternatives
6. finding-aggregation compares explanatory power across alternatives

Budget Table

Parameter	S	M	L
Attack vectors	5	12	20
Probing rounds	3	6	10
Personas	2	4	6
Assumption checks	5	10	20

Orchestration

threat-surface-mapping → [identify variable dimensions]
→ alternative-futures (generate 2-4 scenarios)
→ [for each alternative]:
    attack-vector-generation (find discriminating tests)
    → probe-execution (test alternative)
→ finding-aggregation → attack-resilience-scoring

Subagents

• threat-surface-mapping (dimension identification)
• alternative-futures (scenario generation)
• attack-vector-generation (discriminating test design)
• probe-execution (alternative testing)
• finding-aggregation (comparative synthesis)

Available Tactics

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

Tactic	When to use
adversarial-roleplay	Tactic: Construct detailed hostile persona, attack artifact from that persona's perspective, record successful attack paths for aggregation.
structured-attack-campaign	Tactic: Full attack lifecycle — threat surface enumeration, attack vector generation, systematic probing, and finding aggregation across all surfaces.

Available SOPs

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

SOP	When to use
alternative-futures	Generate 2-4 divergent scenarios from the same evidence base, each representing a plausible alternative to the artifact's conclusions.
attack-vector-generation	Generate specific attack strategies for a given threat surface, producing concrete probes that can be executed.
finding-aggregation	Aggregate, deduplicate, and classify findings from multiple probes into a coherent vulnerability report.
probe-execution	Execute a single attack probe against an artifact, record the result with evidence and severity classification.
threat-surface-mapping	Enumerate all attackable surfaces of an artifact — logical, empirical, methodological, social, and practical dimensions.