Assumption Criticality

Rank assumptions by their impact on conclusions.

Budget

Base SOP	Target	±10% Range
web-search	30	27–33
web-research	10	9–11
paper-overview	30	27–33
paper-search	20	18–22
paper-research	10	9–11

State Ledger

<HARD-GATE>
| SOP | Done | Target | % |
|-----|------|--------|---|
| web-search | ? | 30 | ? |
| web-research | ? | 10 | ? |
| paper-overview | ? | 30 | ? |
| paper-search | ? | 20 | ? |
| paper-research | ? | 10 | ? |
Budget Gate: OPEN/CLOSED (>=80% required to exit)
</HARD-GATE>

Available Tactics

• assumption-perturbation

Available SOPs

Import: web-search, web-research, paper-overview, paper-search, paper-research Subagent: assumption-extraction, negation-definition, re-derivation, conclusion-sensitivity-measurement

Execution Guidance

Extract assumptions, define negation for each, re-derive conclusions under negated assumption, measure how much the conclusion changes. Rank by conclusion sensitivity.

Available Tactics

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

Tactic	When to use
deep-insight-assumption-perturbation	One-at-a-time assumption perturbation — extract assumptions, define negations, re-derive conclusions under each negation, measure sensitivity. Identifies which assumptions are load-bearing.

Available SOPs

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

SOP	When to use
conclusion-sensitivity-measurement	Quantify how much conclusions change across all assumption negations and produce a sensitivity ranking.
deep-insight-assumption-extraction	Systematically extract all assumptions (stated, implicit, boundary, mathematical, practical) from a method or model.
negation-definition	Define strongest plausible alternatives (negations) for each assumption to enable perturbation analysis.
re-derivation	Re-derive conclusions under a negated assumption, tracking where the derivation diverges from the original.