counterfactual-causal-analysis

Purpose

Intervene on factors, construct counterfactual worlds, test necessity and sufficiency, and identify load-bearing causal factors.

Input contract

required: [causal_claim, variables, intervention_target]
optional: [mechanism_graph, baseline_world, comparison_conditions]
constraints: [intervention and outcome must be measurable or explicitly qualitative]

Execution protocol

Do not perform called SOP operations inline; each loaded SOP owns its contract and thresholds.

1. You MUST load skill extract-causal-structure to extract the causal structure. You MUST load skill identify-variables to type its variables.
2. You MUST load skill construct-counterfactual to construct the counterfactual. You MUST load skill identify-load-bearing-factors to identify load-bearing factors.
3. You MUST load skill search-minimal-flip to search the minimal conclusion flip. You MUST load skill evaluate-necessity-sufficiency to test necessity and sufficiency. If the conclusion should instead be tested by contradiction and counterexample, consider reductio-counterexample-analysis as the next tactic. Deviation: use qualitative counterfactuals when intervention data are unavailable, but mark the inference uncertainty.

Output contract

produces: [causal_structure, counterfactual_map, load_bearing_factors, minimal_flip, necessity_sufficiency_report]
delta_fields: [findings, evidence_updates, hypothesis_updates, uncertainties, decisions]

Thresholds and quality gates

• Every intervention must state changed variables, held-fixed conditions, predicted outcome, and evidence basis.
• Necessity and sufficiency are separate judgments; do not collapse them.

Failure and counterexamples

Do not call a factor necessary when an untested substitute can produce the outcome. Mark counterfactuals underdetermined when held-fixed conditions are unspecified.

Provenance map

• resolved: counterfactual-probing
• resolved: structural-counterfactual
• resolved: necessity-sufficiency
• resolved: systematic-factor-ablation
• resolved: causal-necessity-testing
• resolved: minimal-change-search

Preserved source criteria ledger

source	source line	kind	source criterion
v4 architecture	node desc	textual	Intervene, construct counterfactual worlds, test necessity/sufficiency, identify load-bearing factors.

Context checkpoint / Delta notes

Append intervention worlds, held-fixed conditions, factor ranking, flip search, and necessity/sufficiency results.