Create variant

This skill creates a variant of a backtesting or optimiser notebook.

Input

• Existing notebook file
• Names of parameters we want to change

Template notebooks

• For search and optimiser use scratchpad/vault-of-vaults/67-hyperliquid-dual-signal-parameter-tuning.ipynb
• For a single backtest use scratchpad/vault-of-vaults/40-hyperliquid-august-start.ipynb

Output

• New notebook file: increase the running counter prefix and change the slug
  • This is a backtest call the file {number}-backtest-{slug}.ipynb
  • This is a optimiser call the file {number}-opt-{slug}.ipynb
  • If it is other research call {number}-research-{slug}.ipynb
• Update parameters in the notebook with new values. Usually these live in the Parameters class, but sometimes they do not, such as when changing the optimiser target function.
• Update the notebook title and description in the first cell to reflect the new variant.
• In the first cell, include the name of the notebook this variant is based on.
• If the notebook heading contains research findings or other inherited results, remove them because they belong to the old notebook, not the new one.

If there is a heatmap and the variant changes the optimiser target, remember to update it:

from tradeexecutor.analysis.grid_search_parameters import analyse_parameter_pair_heatmaps

figs = analyse_parameter_pair_heatmaps(df, analysis_metric="Calmar")
for fig in figs:
    fig.show()

Optimiser iterations

If the original notebook uses an optimiser (e.g. perform_optimisation with an iterations variable), reset iterations = 18 in the variant so that the initial run does not take too long. The user can increase iterations later once the notebook is confirmed working.

Verification

After the notebook is created, run it with the observable jupyter-execute-agent runner as instructed in CLAUDE.md — poetry run jupyter-execute-agent {output-notebook}.ipynb (see notebook-execution.md). Fix any bugs and issues you may have created.

Analysis

• After the notebook has been successfully run, analyse the experiment result.
• Update the notebook heading with the results.
• Analyse individual positions and jumps in the equity curve. If the result looks lucky because of a single trade on one vault, instead of many vaults moving together during a broader market event, use curator.py to quantify that trade.
• Check for other suspicious traits in the results, such as an unusually strong best day or extreme kurtosis. Note that a strong best day can still be valid if BTC and ETH moved sharply on that day.
• Write the "Robustness analysis" in the heading section of the notebook noting any artefacts found during analysis.
• If the analysis is not robust and you think there are gaps, you can increase iterations to 28 and fine-tune parameter search space.

We want to see sections:

• Key new insights and what did we leart from this experiemenet
• Summary of results
• Robustness of results