currency-analysis

Defaults

Parameter	Default Value	Rationale
lookback_quarters	8	Covers multi-year currency cycles
key_indicators	rate_differential, current_account, PPP, reserves	Standard FX valuation framework

Preflight

Run canonical pre-flight per contracts/preflight.md. Propagate X-Agentii-Trace per contracts/x-agentii-trace-header.md.

Data Source Priority

1. Knowledge entries (L1 currency frameworks) -> 2. search_by_analogue(event_type: currency-peg-break) -> 3. Real-time data

Methodology

Retrieval Scope

structured_only

Retrieval Strategy

Query knowledge entries for currency frameworks; query search_by_analogue for currency crises; supplement with real-time data.

Temporal Scope

See frontmatter temporal_scope block.

Tool Allowlist

See frontmatter allowed_tools.

Protocol

1. Currency Regime Classification — floating/managed float/pegged/dollarized
2. Fundamental Drivers — rate differential, current account, PPP, terms of trade
3. Framework Application — carry trade, PPP valuation, central bank divergence
4. Analogue Retrieval — past currency crises and regime breaks

Output File

{ticker}/{YYYY-MM-DD_HHMM}_currency-analysis_{affix}.md

Output Structure

1. Executive Summary — key findings in 2-3 sentences
2. Core Analysis — applied frameworks with specific evidence
3. Quantitative Indicators — key metrics and benchmarks
4. Historical Analogues — matched cases with /v/cases/ citations
5. Risk Assessment — key risk factors and mitigants
6. Coverage Gaps — data limitations and degraded flags Currency Regime Classification 3. Fundamental Drivers 4. Central Bank Divergence 5. Historical Currency Crises 6. Scenarios

Error Handling

Error	Fallback
No frameworks	Proceed with standard FX indicators; flag degraded

Memory Load

See contracts/memory-load.md.

Snapshot

See contracts/snapshot-synthesis.md.

Final Summary (TUI)

Include ### Key Citations block with 0-10 clickable /v/ URLs.

References

• references/knowledge-frameworks.md
• contracts/citation-and-memory.md
• contracts/output-frontmatter-schema.md
• contracts/memory-load.md
• contracts/snapshot-synthesis.md
• contracts/preflight.md