/exp-pilot-eval

Evaluate pilot experiment results and update the linked idea page. Reads pilot results from experiments/pilot/code/{slug}/results/, applies verdict logic (pass/fail/inconclusive), and updates the idea's pilot_result, failure_reason, and status fields. Called by /ideate Phase 5 after /exp-pilot-run completes.

Inputs

• idea-slug: slug of the idea whose pilot was just run
• --auto (optional): automatic mode, no pause for user confirmation (used when called by /research)

Outputs

• wiki/ideas/{slug}.md — updated pilot_result (always), failure_reason (if failed), status (if failed → failed)
• wiki/log.md — appended log entry
• PILOT_VERDICT_REPORT (printed to terminal) — verdict, wiki change summary, next step suggestions
• experiments/pilot/{slug}/report.md — PILOT_VERDICT_REPORT file copy (persistent record)

Wiki Interaction

Reads

• wiki/ideas/{slug}.md — linked idea current state: status, pilot_result, failure_reason
• experiments/pilot/code/{slug}/results/seed_*.json — pilot experiment results
• experiments/pilot/code/{slug}/pilot.log — pilot run log (for failure diagnosis: errors, warnings, runtime behavior)
• experiments/pilot/{slug}.yaml — Pilot Spec (for success_criterion and baseline reference)

Writes

• wiki/ideas/{slug}.md — update pilot_result, failure_reason (if failed), status (if failed)
• wiki/log.md — append operation log
• experiments/pilot/{slug}/report.md — PILOT_VERDICT_REPORT file copy

Graph edges created

• None. Pilot evaluations do not create graph edges (those are for formal experiments via /exp-eval).

Workflow

Step 1: Load Context

1. Read idea page wiki/ideas/{slug}.md:

   • Current status and pilot_result
   • Current failure_reason (should be empty for proposed ideas)

2. Read pilot results from experiments/pilot/code/{slug}/results/seed_*.json:

   • Parse result files (JSON)
   • Compute mean ± std per metric (across seeds)

3. Read pilot log from experiments/pilot/code/{slug}/pilot.log:

   • Scan for errors, warnings, OOM, divergence signals
   • Extract runtime behavior context for failure diagnosis and verdict report

4. Read Pilot Spec from experiments/pilot/{slug}.yaml:

   • Extract success_criterion (pass, fail, inconclusive conditions)
   • Extract baseline.expected_value for comparison

Step 2: Apply Verdict Logic

Evaluate the pilot results against the success_criterion from the Pilot Spec. The verdict thresholds are intentionally lenient — the purpose of a pilot is to detect obvious failures, not to measure final performance.

• Pass: pilot does NOT show clear failure. Since pilots use reduced batch size (1/4–1/8 of paper's) and shortened training (10–30% of full steps), results are inherently noisy and biased downward. Therefore: improvement over baseline, roughly on par with baseline, or even slightly worse than baseline all count as pass. Also passes if the gap is confirmed (path C: existing methods indeed fail under new setting).
• Fail: pilot shows clear, unambiguous failure (divergence, severe degradation vs baseline, fundamental incompatibility). The threshold is high — only ideas that are clearly broken should fail at this stage.
• Inconclusive: pilot is noisy or ambiguous — results don't clearly pass or fail.

Step 3: Update Idea Page

If verdict == pass:

• Set pilot_result: "pass — <one-sentence summary of key metric vs baseline>"
• Status unchanged (stays proposed or current)
• Example: "pass — accuracy 0.82 vs baseline 0.80, loss converges"

If verdict == fail:

• Set pilot_result: "fail — <specific failure>"
• Set failure_reason: "[pilot] <specific failure description>"
  • The [pilot] prefix distinguishes pilot failures from [filter] eliminations (Phase 3) and post-experiment failures from /exp-eval
• Transition status to failed:

  python3 tools/research_wiki.py set-meta wiki/ideas/{slug}.md pilot_result "fail — <specific failure>"
  python3 tools/research_wiki.py transition wiki/ideas/{slug}.md --to failed --reason "[pilot] <specific failure description>"
  

  • transition validates lifecycle rules (e.g. refuses to downgrade validated → failed) and auto-sets failure_reason and date_resolved.
• Example failure_reason: "[pilot] loss diverged after 50 steps (reached 1e5 vs baseline 0.3)"

If verdict == inconclusive:

• Set pilot_result: "inconclusive — needs full experiment"
• Status unchanged

Step 4: Report

1. If --auto is not set: display verdict and wiki changes in terminal, wait for user confirmation on borderline cases

2. Append log:

   python3 tools/research_wiki.py log wiki/ \
     "exp-pilot-eval | {slug} | verdict: {verdict} | pilot_result: {result}"
   

3. Print PILOT_VERDICT_REPORT to terminal and write to experiments/pilot/{slug}/report.md:

   # Pilot Verdict Report: {slug}
   
   ## Verdict: {pass / fail / inconclusive}
   
   ## Results Summary
   | Metric | Baseline | Pilot (mean±std) | Δ |
   |--------|----------|------------------|---|
   | {metric} | {baseline-value} | {mean}±{std} | {delta} |
   
   ## Pilot Log
   - Log: experiments/pilot/code/{slug}/pilot.log
   - Key signals: {errors / warnings / OOM / divergence observed in log, or "clean run"}
   
   ## Wiki Changes
   | Page | Field | Old | New |
   |------|-------|-----|-----|
   | ideas/{slug} | pilot_result | {old} | {new} |
   | ideas/{slug} | status | {old} | {new} | (only if changed) |
   | ideas/{slug} | failure_reason | — | {new} | (only if failed) |
   
   ## Next Steps
   - {if pass: proceed to /exp-design for full experiments}
   - {if fail: idea eliminated; review pilot log for details}
   - {if inconclusive: proceed to full experiment with caution}
   

Constraints

• Only processes pilot-tested ideas: results must exist in experiments/pilot/code/{slug}/results/
• failure_reason must be specific: not vague "pilot failed" — include what failed and why
• Idea lifecycle is forward-only: proposed → failed (cannot regress validated → failed)
• Does NOT create graph edges: those are for formal experiments via /exp-eval
• Pilot pass threshold is intentionally low: detect obvious failures, not measure final performance
• The [pilot] prefix is mandatory on failure_reason: distinguishes from [filter] and post-experiment failures

Error Handling

• Idea page not found: report error, suggest running /ideate first
• Pilot results not found: report error, suggest running /exp-pilot-run first
• Idea already failed: report current state, do not overwrite
• Idea already validated: refuse to downgrade status, report warning
• Pilot Spec not found: report error, suggest running /ideate first to generate the spec

Dependencies

Skills (via Skill tool)

• None

Tools (via Bash)

• python3 tools/research_wiki.py set-meta wiki/ideas/{slug}.md <field> "<value>" — update idea fields (e.g. pilot_result)
• python3 tools/research_wiki.py transition wiki/ideas/{slug}.md --to <status> [--reason "..."] — transition idea lifecycle status
• python3 tools/research_wiki.py log wiki/ "<message>" — append log

Claude Code Native

• Read — read idea page, pilot results, pilot log, Pilot Spec
• Edit — update idea page fields
• Bash — execute research_wiki.py commands

Called by

• /ideate Phase 5
• User directly