Finance Forecast Scenario Planning

Use this skill when the output needs to support planning, not just explain the past.

Use when

• The user needs a forecast, reforecast, or scenario view.
• Assumption changes must be visible.
• Finance and operating teams need a forward-looking planning narrative.

Do not use when

• The task is only backward-looking variance explanation.
• There are no usable drivers.
• The user only wants spreadsheet formatting help.

Forecasting principles

• Model from drivers when possible.
• Separate assumptions from calculations.
• Use scenarios instead of a single fragile forecast.
• Avoid hockey-stick assumptions unless they are clearly justified.

Workflow

1. Identify the drivers

Possible drivers include:

• volume
• price
• customer count
• ARPU
• churn
• headcount
• gross margin
• cash conversion

2. Build the base case

The base case should be the most defensible path, not the most optimistic path.

3. Stress the plan

Create:

• bull case
• base case
• bear case

Say exactly which assumptions change across cases.

4. Translate the forecast into decisions

The answer should show:

• what the plan implies
• where the forecast is most fragile
• which assumptions are most worth monitoring

Output format

Return:

1. Driver frame

• main drivers used
• missing inputs
• planning horizon

2. Scenario view

• bull
• base
• bear

3. Planning implications

• revenue, margin, or cash outlook
• biggest forecast risks
• next monitoring points

Use together with

• finance-budget-variance-analysis
• finance-saas-metrics
• office-duckdb-query