Forecasting

Purpose

Make specific, falsifiable predictions with calibrated confidence levels. Track accuracy over time using Brier scores. Apply superforecasting methodology (Tetlock/Good Judgment Project) to any domain — technology trends, project outcomes, market shifts, competitive moves, risk assessment.

When to Use

• User asks for a prediction or forecast on any topic.
• Strategic reflection identifies a decision that depends on uncertain futures.
• Surplus compute is available and a prediction review is due.
• A previously made prediction is approaching its resolution date.
• Deep reflection surfaces a trend worth formally tracking.

Superforecasting Principles

1. Triage — Focus on questions where effort improves accuracy. Ignore questions that are either trivially knowable or fundamentally unknowable.
2. Fermi decomposition — Break big questions into smaller, estimable components. "Will X happen?" → "What's the base rate? What's different this time? What signals would I expect to see?"
3. Balance inside and outside views — Start with the reference class (base rate from historical analogues), then adjust with specific evidence. Never skip the outside view.
4. Update incrementally — Bayesian updating. New evidence shifts confidence by small amounts, not dramatic swings. Avoid overreaction.
5. Calibration over precision — A well-calibrated 60% is better than an overconfident 90%. Your 70% predictions should come true ~70% of the time.
6. Distinguish noise from signal — Most new information is noise. Ask: does this actually change the probability, or does it just feel important because it's recent?
7. Consider contrarian views — Actively seek evidence against your current position. What must be true for the opposite outcome?
8. Post-mortem every resolution — When a prediction resolves, analyze WHY you were right or wrong, not just whether. Update process, not just beliefs.
9. Express uncertainty numerically — "Likely" is ambiguous. 70% is not. Use the probability scale below.
10. Separate confidence from conviction — High confidence (90%) means high probability. Strong conviction means you've thought deeply. You can have low confidence with strong conviction (you've analyzed it thoroughly and it's genuinely uncertain).

Signal Taxonomy

Signal Type	Weight	Description
Leading indicator	High	Predicts before the event (e.g., job postings predict growth)
Lagging indicator	Medium	Confirms after the event (e.g., quarterly earnings)
Base rate	High	Historical frequency of similar events
Expert opinion	Medium	Domain expert assessment (weight by track record)
Data point	High	Quantitative measurement directly relevant
Anomaly	High	Deviation from expected pattern — investigate
Structural change	Very High	Rules of the game changing (regulation, technology shift)
Sentiment shift	Medium	Public/market mood change (often noise, sometimes signal)

Signal strength:

• Strong — Multiple independent sources, quantitative, leading, from sources with track record
• Moderate — Single authoritative source, specialist opinion, qualitative
• Weak — Social buzz, anecdote, rumor, single unverified claim

Confidence Scale

Probability	Meaning	Betting Odds
5%	Almost certainly not	19:1 against
15%	Very unlikely	~6:1 against
25%	Unlikely but plausible	3:1 against
35%	Somewhat unlikely	~2:1 against
45%	Toss-up, leaning no	~1.2:1 against
55%	Toss-up, leaning yes	~1.2:1 for
65%	Somewhat likely	~2:1 for
75%	Likely	3:1 for
85%	Very likely	~6:1 for
95%	Almost certain	19:1 for

Adjustment rules: +/-5-15% per strong signal, +/-2-5% per moderate signal. If gut says 80% but analysis says 55%, trust the analysis.

Cognitive Bias Checklist

Before finalizing ANY prediction, check against these 8 biases:

Bias	Check	Fix
Anchoring	Am I stuck on the first number I thought of?	Re-derive from base rates
Availability	Am I overweighting recent/vivid examples?	Search for boring counterexamples
Confirmation	Am I only finding evidence that agrees?	Explicitly search for disconfirming evidence
Narrative	Am I constructing a compelling story that feels true?	Check: does the data support this without the story?
Overconfidence	Am I more certain than my evidence warrants?	Would I bet real money at these odds?
Scope insensitivity	Am I treating "some" and "a lot" as the same?	Quantify: how much exactly?
Recency	Am I overweighting what happened last?	Check 5-year and 10-year base rates
Status quo	Am I assuming things will stay the same?	What would need to change, and how likely is each change?

Reasoning Chain Template

For each prediction, construct:

1. Reference Class (Outside View)

• What is the base rate for this type of event?
• 3-5 historical analogues with outcomes
• Starting probability from base rate alone

2. Specific Evidence (Inside View)

• List each signal with type, strength, and direction
• For each signal: percentage adjustment from base rate
• Net adjustment

3. Synthesis

• Start at base rate
• Apply net adjustment
• State final probability with explicit reasoning

4. Key Assumptions

• What must remain true for this prediction to hold?
• For each assumption: conditional probability shift if violated

5. Resolution Criteria

• Exact date or trigger for resolution
• Specific, observable criteria (not subjective)
• Data source for verification

Brier Score

Brier = (predicted_probability - actual_outcome)^2

Where actual_outcome is 0 (didn't happen) or 1 (happened).

Score	Quality
< 0.10	Excellent
0.10 - 0.15	Good
0.15 - 0.25	Average
0.25	Coin flip (no skill)
> 0.30	Worse than guessing

Track cumulative Brier score across all resolved predictions. Review monthly. If cumulative Brier > 0.25, recalibrate methodology.

Contrarian Mode

When explicitly requested or when consensus confidence exceeds 85%:

1. Identify the consensus view and its evidence
2. Search specifically for counter-consensus evidence
3. Ask: "What must be true for the opposite to happen?"
4. If contrarian case is credible (>15% probability), include it
5. Always label contrarian predictions as such alongside consensus

Domain Source Guides

Domain	Priority Sources
Technology	GitHub trending, HN, arXiv, Crunchbase, job postings, patent filings
Finance	FRED, SEC filings, central bank statements, VIX, yield curves
Geopolitics	UN resolutions, RAND, think tank reports, diplomatic cables
Climate/Energy	IPCC, IEA, CDP, BloombergNEF, utility filings
AI/ML	arXiv, model benchmarks, API pricing trends, conference papers

Output Format

prediction_id: <PRED-YYYY-MM-DD-NNN>
created: <YYYY-MM-DD>
domain: <technology | finance | geopolitics | climate | ai_ml | general>
time_horizon: <1_week | 1_month | 3_months | 1_year>
prediction: <specific, falsifiable statement>
confidence: <probability 0.05-0.95>
reasoning_chain:
  reference_class:
    base_rate: <probability>
    analogues:
      - <historical analogue and outcome>
  specific_evidence:
    - signal: <description>
      type: <leading | lagging | base_rate | expert | data | anomaly | structural | sentiment>
      strength: <strong | moderate | weak>
      adjustment: <+/- percentage>
  synthesis: <narrative combining outside and inside views>
  key_assumptions:
    - assumption: <what must hold>
      if_violated: <probability shift>
resolution:
  date: <YYYY-MM-DD>
  criteria: <exact observable condition>
  data_source: <where to verify>
bias_check: <which biases were checked and adjustments made>
status: active | resolved | expired
updates:
  - date: <YYYY-MM-DD>
    old_confidence: <previous>
    new_confidence: <updated>
    reason: <what changed>
resolution_result:
  date: <YYYY-MM-DD>
  outcome: true | false
  evidence: <what happened>
  brier_score: <calculated score>
  lesson: <what to learn from this>

Prediction Review Schedule

• Weekly: Review all active predictions. Update confidence if new evidence.
• Monthly: Calculate cumulative Brier score. Identify calibration drift.
• On resolution: Score immediately. Post-mortem. Update procedures.

References

• Tetlock, P. (2015). Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
• src/genesis/learning/ — Outcome tracking for Brier score integration
• src/genesis/identity/REFLECTION_STRATEGIC.md — Strategic reflection context