/socialforge:ingest-performance — real numbers into the wins rung

/socialforge:ideate-month compounds "what worked last month." Before this skill, that meant whatever someone remembered in the planning call — and memory favors the post that felt good, not the one that performed. This skill turns the platform's own export into the record ideation reads.

Step 1 — Get the export

Ask the user for the analytics export covering the month. Any CSV works if it has a column identifying the post (post_id, post, id) that matches the calendar's post ids, plus whichever metrics the platform provides (impressions/views, likes/reactions, comments, shares/reposts, saves, clicks, follows — header aliases are normalized automatically). If the export keys posts by URL or caption instead of the calendar id, help the user add a post_id column first — matching is by calendar id, deliberately: wins must map back to the topics and pillars that produced them.

Step 2 — Ingest

python ${CLAUDE_PLUGIN_ROOT}/scripts/ingest_performance.py --action ingest \
    --brand {brand} --month {YYYY-MM} --csv {export.csv} --source "{platform} export"

• Rows matching calendar post ids are stored in output/{brand}/{month}/performance.json (repeat ingests append — one CSV per platform is normal).
• Unmatched rows are listed in the output, never silently dropped. Show the user the unmatched list; a typo'd id is data lost from the wins rung.
• Exit 3 = nothing matched. Stop and reconcile ids before proceeding.

Step 3 — Rank the wins

python ${CLAUDE_PLUGIN_ROOT}/scripts/ingest_performance.py --action wins \
    --brand {brand} --month {YYYY-MM}

The ranking is deliberately conservative:

• Sample floor (default 100 impressions): a post nobody saw cannot be a win, only noise. Below-floor posts are reported as unranked with the reason.
• Margin rule (default 1.5× the month's median engagement rate): a "win" must beat the month, not merely top a flat list.
• Unmeasured is not zero: missing impressions → engagement_rate: null, and the post lands in unranked, not at the bottom of the ranking.
• A flat month returns "status": "no_clear_wins" — report that honestly. Compounding a non-win manufactures a false signal for next month's plan.

Step 4 — Hand off to ideation

Relay the wins output to /socialforge:ideate-month (its "last month's results" input). Winners carry their topic, pillar, tier, and vs_month_median multiple, so ideation can design follow-ups that compound the validated angle — and label each one measured in "What last month validated". Anything the client reports that is NOT in the ranked output is still usable, labeled anecdotal.

Pairs with

• /socialforge:ideate-month — consumes the wins output; measured beats remembered
• /socialforge:finalize-month — closing a month is the natural moment to ingest its numbers