Sports Probabilities MCP

An MCP server that gives AI assistants Monte Carlo probabilities for the NFL, MLB and 17 soccer leagues, plus a model-versus-market comparison against live Kalshi prices.

Ask in plain language from Claude, ChatGPT or Cursor and get a computed number back — not an estimate the model made up.

The server runs on Apify: https://apify.com/commodus67/sports-probabilities-mcp

This repository holds the documentation and the registry manifest (server.json). The implementation lives in the Actor above.

Coverage

Sport	Teams	Probabilities
NFL	All 32	Playoffs, division, wild card, No. 1 seed
MLB	All 30	Postseason, division, wild card, top seed
Soccer	17 leagues	Title, top four, continental qualification, playoff, relegation

Soccer leagues: Premier League, EFL Championship, LaLiga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Eredivisie, Primeira Liga, Süper Lig, Belgian Pro League, Scottish Premiership, Brasileirão, Liga MX, Liga Profesional (Argentina), Primera A (Colombia), MLS, Austrian Bundesliga. Other ESPN soccer slugs are supported.

Tools

Tool	Purpose
get_team_probabilities	One team's full probability set, current record, projected finish and ranking
get_league_probabilities	A whole league ranked by probability rather than by points or record
compare_model_vs_market	Model against live Kalshi prices: edge, expected value after fees, fractional Kelly stake
run_scenario	A fresh simulation under custom model assumptions, with movement analysis
get_probability_history	How a team's probability moved across the season, from archived runs

Connect

Streamable HTTP transport, stateless. Add the endpoint to your MCP client with an Apify API token as a bearer token:

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "sports-probabilities": {
      "url": "https://commodus67--sports-probabilities-mcp.apify.actor/mcp",
      "headers": {
        "Authorization": "Bearer YOUR_APIFY_API_TOKEN"
      }
    }
  }
}

How it works

Each answer comes from one of three published Monte Carlo Actors that take live standings and the remaining schedule, play out the rest of the season thousands of times, and count how often each outcome happens. The MCP server calls those Actors and caches the result — it does not reimplement the simulation, so an answer here never disagrees with the same query made directly against the API.

Every response carries the date and the source of the run it came from.

Pricing

Pay per event, billed through Apify. From $50.00 per 1,000 probability reads. Full pricing on the Actor page.

Note

This is statistics and simulation. It is not betting advice, and it does not produce picks.