market-share-tracking

Methodology inspired by publicly taught commercial-tracking approaches; all text is an original paraphrase.

Defaults

Parameter	Default Value	Rationale
windows	current / 4-wk / 12-wk	Three-window share + growth lattice
growth_metric	TRx YoY	Weekly, 4-wk, and 12-wk YoY alongside share
analog_count	2	≥2 named same-class analogs on the launch board
consensus_source	company-level	Product consensus via segment-share math [DEDUCTED]
caveats	per-row	A number without a caveat annotation is a defect

Preflight

Run canonical pre-flight per contracts/preflight.md. Propagate X-Agentii-Trace per contracts/x-agentii-trace-header.md. Confirm ticker resolution via search_companies before commercial-track queries.

Triggers

• "Is [product] tracking above or below consensus?"
• "How is the [product] launch trending?"
• "Build the launch board for [product] with class analogs."
• "What is the consensus-implied trajectory for [product]?"
• "Show [product]'s TRx share and YoY for the last 12 weeks."
• "How fast is [biosimilar] eroding [branded product]?"
• "Stress-test [product]'s net price and GTN."
• "What are the caveats on [product]'s scripts?"
• "Track installed base and utilization for [device]."
• "How is ACIP-cohort uptake tracking for [vaccine]?"

Production Grounding

• Three-window lattice: current / 4-wk / 12-wk share and YoY; previous values shown next to new values.
• Launch boards: actuals vs ≥2 named same-class analogs + consensus-implied trajectory (consensus sales ÷ net price ÷ script duration → required TRx → linear path); assumptions stated.
• LOE erosion: entrant share vs branded YoY decay with approval/launch dates.
• GTN/net-price stress: GTN brackets (50→80% flex), $/Rx = quarterly sales ÷ scripts, channel mix; half-of-sales-minus-volume net price is a stated judgment [VIEW].
• Modality vocabularies: scripts/share/erosion (drugs & biologics); installed base, placements/procedures, utilization, ASP (devices); doses/serials, procurement, ACIP-cohort uptake (vaccines); never a script number for a device or vaccine.
• Per-row caveats: restricted scripts, rounding, indication-mixed, IV invisibility, holiday weeks — every row carries its caveat or coverage_gap.
• Badges: [FACT]/[DEDUCTED]/[VIEW] with the summary table.

Data Source Priority

1. search_commercial_track — weekly track rows with stored previous values.
2. Company-reported product sales: 10-K/Q XBRL (get_statement) and MD&A (search_documents).
3. Transcript commentary on scripts/share/persistence via search_documents.
4. Payer coverage/PA announcements and openFDA label events via search_documents + list_sources.
5. Consensus: search_earnings_calendar company-level only; licensed Rx panels never assumed.

Methodology

Retrieval Scope

unstructured_document_search

Retrieval Strategy

1. Resolve basket tickers via search_companies; map products to companies.
2. Pull weekly rows via search_commercial_track (previous values stored alongside).
3. Compute the three-window lattice from stored history; attach per-row caveats.
4. Build the launch board: ≥2 named analog curves + consensus-implied trajectory arithmetic.
5. LOE events: pair entrant share with branded YoY decay; date approval/launch.
6. Stress net price (GTN brackets, $/Rx, channel mix); label derived values [DEDUCTED].
7. Ground in knowledge (sectors=med); cite /v/ records.

Temporal Scope

See frontmatter temporal_scope block. Rolling windows recompute from stored history; holiday weeks are labeled.

Tool Allowlist

See frontmatter allowed_tools.

Protocol

1. Ticker + product resolution
2. Commercial-track pull (stored history)
3. Three-window lattice computation
4. Launch-board overlay + implied trajectory
5. LOE erosion series (when applicable)
6. GTN/net-price stress + caveat audit

Modes

• Drug / biologic (default): scripts/share/erosion; LOE/biosimilar series.
• Device: installed base, placements/procedures, utilization, ASP; no script numbers.
• Vaccine: doses/serials, procurement, ACIP-cohort uptake; approval ≠ commercial availability.
• Basket: multi-ticker watchlist with per-name sections.

Tool Fallbacks

Failure	Fallback
search_commercial_track empty	Company-reported sales (get_statement/search_documents); annotate coverage_gap
Scripts restricted (IQVIA)	State the restriction verbatim; refuse a share number; use company-reported metrics
No product consensus	Segment share × company consensus [DEDUCTED]; else coverage_gap with required inputs
No analog series	Named-analog list with disclosed sales/scripts; flag degraded
One-quarter issuer / pre-revenue	Pipeline/cash-runway logic; no share arithmetic

Output File

{ticker}/{YYYY-MM-DD_HHMM}_market-share-tracking_{affix}.md (basket: watchlist/{YYYY-MM-DD_HHMM}_market-share-tracker_{affix}.md)

Output Structure

1. Executive Summary — actuals vs consensus-implied trajectory, 2-3 sentences
2. Launch Board — actuals vs ≥2 named analogs + consensus-implied path with stated arithmetic
3. Share & YoY Lattice — current/4-wk/12-wk share and YoY with previous values
4. LOE / Erosion Series — entrant share vs branded YoY decay with approval/launch dates
5. Net-Price & GTN Stress — $/Rx, GTN brackets, channel mix, [DEDUCTED] labels
6. Caveat Register — per-row annotations + coverage_gap list
7. Coverage Gaps — missing sources and degraded modes

Error Handling

Error	Fallback
No commercial-track rows	Company-reported sales only; annotate coverage_gap — never fabricate scripts
Product not in med universe	Resolve via product/company match; surface the classification gap
Consensus absent	coverage_gap with required inputs (sales, net price, script duration)

Memory Load

See contracts/memory-load.md.

Snapshot

See contracts/snapshot-synthesis.md.

Final Summary (TUI)

Include ### Key Citations block with 0-10 clickable /v/ URLs.

References

• contracts/citation-and-memory.md
• contracts/output-frontmatter-schema.md
• contracts/memory-load.md
• contracts/snapshot-synthesis.md
• contracts/preflight.md
• references/knowledge-frameworks.md