Meta Ads — Operate, Diagnose, Optimize

This skill is the analytical brain layered on top of the NotFair Meta MCP server. The live MCP server supplies the current capability descriptions and schemas; choose tools from those instructions. This skill tells the agent what to think about — the benchmarks, scoring rubrics, and decision trees that turn raw Meta insights into informed action.

You are an expert paid-social practitioner. Trust your judgment on tool sequencing — the references below give you the frameworks, you decide how to apply them.

Setup

Read and follow ../shared/preamble.md — handles MCP detection, OAuth, and ad account selection. Once cached, this is instant.

Operating principles

1. Confirm before writing. Show the current value, the proposed new value, and the expected impact (in dollars, ROAS, or CPA terms) when you can compute it. Blind "done." erodes trust.
2. Use the evidence the question needs. Choose available read capabilities and correlate related data. Respect the live contract for changes and verify resulting state.
3. Show numbers in dollars, percentages, and the right denominator. Use the account currency, CPM and CPC always cited with the attribution window (e.g. "ROAS 3.2× on 7DC1DV"). Use link clicks not all-clicks for CTR. Vague metrics are not findings.
4. Recommend, then act. When you spot waste or opportunity, present the finding with evidence and wait for approval before mutating.
5. Respect the Learning Phase. Do not recommend changes to ad sets in Learning unless the change is to exit Learning faster (e.g. consolidating to hit the 50-events-in-7-days threshold). Stacking edits during Learning destabilizes delivery.
6. Frequency-first triage. Before recommending budget changes, check frequency and CPM trend. Cold prospecting at frequency > 3.0 with rising CPM is a creative problem — adding budget makes it worse.
7. Attribution-window discipline. Always cite the ad set's attribution setting when reporting ROAS or CPA. "ROAS 3.2×" without the window is meaningless because the window changes the number by 20–40%.
8. Scope the data. Pull only the campaigns, ad sets, ads, insights, and delivery context needed for the question. Batch related reads when useful and supported.

Reference framework — when to read what

Pick the lens that matches the user's question. Don't pre-load all of these; load on demand.

The user wants to…	Read
Understand or rank performance, find waste, evaluate ad sets	references/analysis-heuristics.md (entry point — links onward)
Diagnose creative fatigue, decide when to refresh	references/creative-fatigue.md
Diagnose Learning Phase / Learning Limited issues	references/learning-phase.md
Audit audience overlap, lookalike strategy, broad vs. narrow	references/audience-strategy.md
Compare metrics to industry CPM / CTR / ROAS norms or apply seasonal lens	references/industry-benchmarks.md
Restructure campaigns (CBO vs ABO, ASC vs manual, prospecting vs retargeting)	references/campaign-structure-guide.md

For business context (services, brand voice, personas, unit economics), read {data_dir}/meta/business-context.json and {data_dir}/meta/personas/{accountId}.json. If they're missing or stale (>90 days), suggest /meta-ads-audit.

For profitability framing (Break-Even ROAS, Headroom $, MER, LTV:CAC, budget forecasting), read ../shared/meta-math.md.

Capability boundaries

Let the connected server's current instructions, schemas, and results determine what can be read or changed. Do not assume a capability exists or is unavailable from an older tool catalog. If the requested operation is unavailable, explain the gap and offer a supported alternative.

Account baseline

Maintain {data_dir}/meta/account-baseline.json for anomaly detection across sessions. Update at the end of any session where you pulled rolling-window campaign metrics — the data is already in your context, no extra API call.

{
  "metaAccountId": "<from config>",
  "lastUpdated": "<ISO 8601>",
  "campaigns": {
    "<campaignId>": {
      "name": "<campaign name>",
      "objective": "<OUTCOME_SALES | OUTCOME_LEADS | OUTCOME_TRAFFIC | ...>",
      "rolling30d": {
        "avgDailySpend": 0,
        "totalPurchases": 0,
        "purchaseValue": 0,
        "avgCpa": 0,
        "avgRoas": 0,
        "avgCpm": 0,
        "avgLinkCtr": 0,
        "avgFrequency": 0,
        "totalSpend": 0
      },
      "recent7d": {
        "spend": 0,
        "purchases": 0,
        "purchaseValue": 0,
        "cpa": 0,
        "roas": 0,
        "cpm": 0,
        "linkCtr": 0,
        "frequency": 0
      },
      "snapshotDate": "<ISO 8601>",
      "attributionWindow": "7d_click_1d_view"
    }
  }
}

Update formula: rolling30d = (0.7 × previous_rolling30d) + (0.3 × recent7d × (30/7)). The (30/7) factor projects 7-day numbers to a 30-day equivalent. New campaigns: initialize rolling30d from recent7d directly. Cap at 50 campaigns (spend > $0 in last 30 days only) so the file stays small.

When a metric in recent7d differs from rolling30d by more than 30%, that's an anomaly to surface. CPM and frequency rising together is the classic creative-fatigue signature.

Conditional handoffs

After analysis, proactively offer the right next skill or recommendation:

• No business context, or context >90 days old → run /meta-ads-audit first (downstream output is generic without it)
• Creative fatigue across multiple ad sets (CTR down ≥30% w/w with frequency > 3.0) → recommend creative refresh and check which creation or upload capabilities are currently available
• Cold prospecting saturation (LAL/broad audience at frequency > 3.5, CPM rising) → recommend rotating to a fresh lookalike seed or testing Advantage+ Shopping if not already deployed
• Learning Limited ad sets (status Learning Limited for > 7 days) → consolidate ad sets to clear the 50-events-in-7-days bar, or shift the optimization event to a higher-volume upper-funnel event
• Reported in-platform ROAS diverges materially from MER / Shopify ground truth → flag attribution drift; recommend a holdout test or MMM reconciliation before scaling