Meta Budget Optimizer

Daily and weekly budget allocation rules for Meta app campaigns. Apply after meta-campaign-setup launch and initial meta-campaign-audit at 48h.

Scale winners in small steps. Kill losers fast. Never let a bad ad eat 70% of spend unchecked.

Initial Assessment

1. Read app-ads-context.md — target CPA, LTV, monthly cap
2. Confirm active campaigns via meta_ads_list_campaigns
3. Pull last 3 days ad-level insights before any change

Core Rules Engine

Condition	Confidence	Action
CPA < 0.8× target, 20+ conv	High	+20% daily budget
CPA 0.8–1.2× target	Medium	Hold budget
CPA 1.2–1.5× target, 15+ conv	Medium	Hold; watch 48h
CPA > 1.5× target, 15+ conv	High	−20% budget or pause weakest ad
Spend > 2× CPA, 0 conv	High	Pause ad immediately
Frequency > 3.5, CTR down 25%+	Medium	No scale — add creative first
Ad set CPA < target, budget capped noon	High	Raise budget +20%
Campaign hits monthly cap	—	Reallocate from losers

Scale Increment Cap

Never increase > 20% per day on campaigns under $500/day — disrupts learning phase.

Current daily budget	Max single increase
$30–100	+20% ($6–20)
$100–500	+20%
$500+	+15–20% (test impact)
$2K+	+10–15% optional cost cap test

Daily Workflow

Step 1 — Pull Data

meta_ads_insights
  target_type: "ad_account"
  level: "ad"
  date_preset: "last_3d"
  fields: "spend,impressions,clicks,ctr,cpc,frequency,actions,cost_per_action_type"
  limit: 100

Or ad set scoped:

meta_ads_insights
  target_type: "adset"
  target_id: "<adset-id>"
  level: "ad"
  date_preset: "last_3d"
  fields: "spend,impressions,clicks,ctr,frequency,actions,cost_per_action_type"

Step 2 — Rank Ads by CPA

Sort ads with ≥ 5 conversions by CPA ascending. Ads with 0 conversions: check spend vs 2× CPA kill rule first.

Tier	Definition	Budget share target
S	CPA < 0.8× target	50–70% of ad set spend
A	CPA 0.8–1.0× target	20–30%
B	CPA 1.0–1.2× target	10–20% hold
C	CPA > 1.2× target	Pause or min delivery
F	0 conv, spend > 2× CPA	Pause

Step 3 — Apply Rules

Document each action before executing.

Step 4 — Execute Updates

Pause loser:

meta_ads_update_ad
  ad_id: "<ad-id>"
  status: "PAUSED"

Scale ad set:

meta_ads_update_adset
  adset_id: "<adset-id>"
  daily_budget_minor: 6000

Scale campaign (CBO only):

meta_ads_update_campaign
  campaign_id: "<campaign-id>"
  daily_budget_minor: 15000

Reduce budget:

meta_ads_update_adset
  adset_id: "<adset-id>"
  daily_budget_minor: 4000

Writes: 2 Appeeky API credits each.

Weekly Workflow

Day	Action
Monday	Full audit — meta-campaign-audit scorecard
Tue–Thu	Daily optimizer (this skill)
Friday	Creative fatigue check; plan refresh
Weekend	Light check unless high spend

Weekly Reallocation

If running multiple ad sets:

1. Sum spend-weighted CPA per ad set
2. Shift 10–20% budget from worst quartile to best
3. Do not move > 20% total budget in one day

Budget Cap Safety

Monthly Pacing

Monthly cap from app-ads-context: $10,000
Days remaining: 12
Spend to date: $7,200
Remaining: $2,800 → max $233/day

If current run rate exceeds cap, reduce budgets proportionally — don't wait for month-end.

Learning Phase Protection

Situation	Rule
Ad set < 50 conversions total	Avoid > 20% budget changes
New creative added same day	Don't scale budget same day
Geo expansion launch	Start at test budget; don't scale 7d

Frequency Gate (no scale)

Before any scale action, check winner frequency:

meta_ads_insights
  target_type: "ad"
  target_id: "<winner-ad-id>"
  date_preset: "last_7d"
  fields: "frequency,ctr"

Frequency	Scale?
< 2.5	Yes if CPA good
2.5–3.5	Scale cautiously (+10%)
> 3.5	No scale — ad-creative-edit or new variant first

CBO vs ABO Strategy

Mode	When	Optimizer focus
ABO (ad set budget)	Testing phase	Per ad set rules
CBO (campaign budget)	1+ proven ad sets	Campaign-level cap; pause bad ad sets
Hybrid	Scale phase	CBO on winners campaign; ABO on tests

Testing: ABO — you control spend per test. Scaling: CBO — Meta shifts to winners within campaign.

Cross-Channel Rules

Pull comparison from cross-channel-performance:

Condition	Action
Meta CPA > TikTok CPA by 30%+	Flag for cross-channel-budget
Meta ROAS best in portfolio	Protect Meta share
Meta CPA rising 3 days straight	Check creative fatigue before cut
ASA brand cheap, Meta broad expensive	Normal — different intent

Do not slash Meta purely on CPA if LTV by channel differs — use campaign-profitability.

Decision Log Template

# Meta Budget Optimizer — [Date]

**Target CPA:** $20  |  **Period:** last_3d

## Actions Taken

| Entity | Before | After | Reason |
|--------|--------|-------|--------|
| Ad set US-iOS | $50/day | $60/day | CPA $14, 22 conv |
| Ad D - Transform | ACTIVE | PAUSED | $45 spend, 0 conv |
| Ad C - Premium | ACTIVE | ACTIVE | Hold — CPA $19, 8 conv |

## Ad Rankings

| Ad | Spend | Conv | CPA | Tier | Action |
|----|-------|------|-----|------|--------|
| B - UGC | $120 | 18 | $6.67 | S | Benefiting from scale |
| A - Problem | $95 | 12 | $7.92 | S | |
| C - Premium | $60 | 3 | $20.00 | B | Hold |
| D - Transform | $45 | 0 | — | F | Paused |

## Tomorrow
- [ ] Recheck C tier after 24h
- [ ] A′ creative on B if frequency > 3

## Monthly Pace
- Spend MTD: $X / $cap — on track / over

Scenario Playbook

Scenario: One ad dominates spend, good CPA

• Action: Allow — Meta found winner. Ensure losers paused if CPA bad.
• Optional: Duplicate winner to new ad set for incremental scale at 50+ conv.

Scenario: All ads mediocre CPA (1.2–1.5×)

• Action: Hold budget. Run ad-creative-edit on best CTR ad.
• Do not scale hoping it fixes itself.

Scenario: CPA spiked after scale

• Action: Revert last budget increase. Check frequency and creative age.
• Rule: If CPA > 1.3× target for 48h post-scale, roll back.

Scenario: Budget spent by 2pm daily

• Action: +20% budget if CPA < target. If CPA bad, don't raise — delivery is telling you something.

Scenario: iOS reporting lag

• Action: Use MMP CPA for decisions. Hold kills unless 2× CPA spend rule.

Benchmarks

Metric	Scale signal	Cut signal
CPA vs target	< 0.8×	> 1.5×
3-day CPA trend	Flat or down	Up 25%+
Frequency	< 3	> 3.5
Spend pacing	Even delivery	Front-loaded junk
Winner conv count	20+	< 5 (hold)

Common Mistakes

Mistake	Fix
+50% budget day	Max +20%
Scaling with frequency 4	Refresh creative first
Not pausing 0-conv ads	2× CPA kill rule
Daily major restructures	One change type per day
Ignoring monthly cap	Pacing math weekly
CBO too early	ABO for tests first
Emotional creative loyalty	Data tier system

Pre-Flight Checklist

- [ ] last_3d insights pulled
- [ ] Target CPA from app-ads-context.md
- [ ] Losers identified (F tier)
- [ ] Frequency checked on scale candidates
- [ ] Budget increase ≤ 20%
- [ ] Monthly pace checked
- [ ] Actions logged for user

Automation Cadence

Spend level	Check frequency
< $50/day	1× daily
$50–200/day	2× daily (morning, evening)
$200+/day	2× daily + weekly audit
$1K+/day	Consider rules + human review

Don't hover hourly — Meta delivery fluctuates intraday.

Related Skills

• meta-campaign-audit — full diagnostic scorecard
• meta-campaign-setup — structure reference
• ad-creative-edit — fatigue refresh before scale
• ad-creative-variants — new batch when all tiers weak
• campaign-profitability — LTV-weighted decisions
• cross-channel-budget — reallocate vs TikTok/ASA
• cross-channel-performance — channel comparison data
• app-ads-context — caps and targets