Startup Strategic Diagnosis

Use this skill when the startup needs a hard strategic read, not just descriptive market commentary.

Use when

• The user wants to pressure-test a startup concept.
• Market timing or competitive context is still unclear.
• A SWOT-style diagnosis is needed before choosing a strategy.

Do not use when

• The task is a narrow execution plan.
• The user only wants a polished narrative without strategic judgment.

Diagnosis failures to avoid

• confusing market size with startup viability
• treating every competitor as equally relevant
• listing strengths and weaknesses with no strategic implication
• ignoring why now
• skipping the assumptions that must be true for the plan to work

Core lenses

1. Market timing

Ask:

• why this problem matters now
• what trend, shift, or trigger makes the opportunity more real today than before

2. Alternative landscape

Map:

• direct competitors
• indirect alternatives
• "do nothing" behavior

3. SWOT

Be explicit about:

• strengths
• weaknesses
• opportunities
• threats

Tie the matrix back to the startup, not to generic market facts.

4. Strategic pressure points

Look for:

• distribution difficulty
• switching friction
• trust gaps
• platform dependence
• resource constraints
• defensibility weakness

5. Must-be-true assumptions

Name the few assumptions that would materially break the thesis if false.

Output format

Return:

1. Strategic diagnosis

• what is really going on
• why now may or may not be credible

2. Alternative landscape

• current alternatives
• what they do well
• where they leave gaps

3. SWOT matrix

• strengths
• weaknesses
• opportunities
• threats

4. Strategic implications

• what this means for focus
• what this means for sequencing
• what this means for defensibility

5. Must-be-true assumptions and next tests

Use together with

• startup-founder-problem-framing
• startup-startup-canvas
• startup-founder-brief