Trade Hypothesis Ideator

SkillMonitoring & ops

Generate falsifiable trade strategy hypotheses from market data, trade logs, and journal snippets. Use when you have a structured input bundle and want ranked hypothesis cards with experiment designs, kill criteria, and optional strategy.yaml export compatible with edge-finder-candidate/v1.

Available today. Use it from your connected AI after setup.

Add ahel to your AI once: Claude, ChatGPT, Cursor, Claude Code or Codex. Then ask it to use this.

Then ask your AI: use the Trade Hypothesis Ideator skill

What this skill tells your AI

The instructions your AI receives, as published by mphinance/alpha-skills in skills/trade-hypothesis-ideator/SKILL.md and read by ahel’s review.

Generate 1-5 structured hypothesis cards from a normalized input bundle, critique and rank them, then optionally export pursue cards into strategy.yaml + metadata.json artifacts.

Workflow

  1. Receive input JSON bundle.
  2. Run pass 1 normalization + evidence extraction.
  3. Generate hypotheses with prompts:
    • prompts/system_prompt.md
    • prompts/developer_prompt_template.md (inject {{evidence_summary}})
  4. Critique hypotheses with prompts/critique_prompt_template.md.
  5. Run pass 2 ranking + output formatting + guardrails.
  6. Optionally export pursue hypotheses via Step H strategy exporter.

Scripts

  • Pass 1 (evidence summary):
python3 skills/trade-hypothesis-ideator/scripts/run_hypothesis_ideator.py \
  --input skills/trade-hypothesis-ideator/examples/example_input.json \
  --output-dir reports/
  • Pass 2 (rank + output + optional export):
python3 skills/trade-hypothesis-ideator/scripts/run_hypothesis_ideator.py \
  --input skills/trade-hypothesis-ideator/examples/example_input.json \
  --hypotheses reports/raw_hypotheses.json \
  --output-dir reports/ \
  --export-strategies

References

  • references/hypothesis_types.md
  • references/evidence_quality_guide.md

Signals

GitHub stars
27
Forks
5
Last commit
Sep 2026
Advanced
Item type
skill
Key
trade-hypothesis-ideator-mphinance
Source
github.com/mphinance/alpha-skills