Writing Assessments

Three types of assessments, each with distinct purpose and structure. Do not conflate them.

Threat Assessment

Purpose: Evaluate a threat actor or threat scenario against a specific target.

Formula: Threat = Intent + Capability + Opportunity

Structure

1. Intent — What does the adversary want?

• Stated objectives (if known)
• Historical targeting patterns
• Geopolitical/economic motivations
• Assessment of intent with confidence level

2. Capability — What can the adversary do?

• Technical sophistication
• Resources (financial, human, infrastructure)
• Known tooling and TTPs
• Track record of successful operations
• Assessment of capability with confidence level

3. Opportunity — What attack surface exists?

• Target's exposure (internet-facing services, supply chain)
• Known vulnerabilities relevant to the adversary's TTPs
• Access pathways (initial access vectors)
• Defensive posture gaps
• Assessment of opportunity with confidence level

4. Combined Threat Level

Level	Criteria
Critical	Demonstrated intent, advanced capability, and clear opportunity. Attack is imminent or ongoing.
High	Strong intent indicators, significant capability, and exploitable opportunity. Attack is highly likely in assessment period.
Moderate	Some intent indicators, moderate capability, and some opportunity. Attack is a realistic possibility.
Low	Limited intent indicators, basic capability, or minimal opportunity. Attack is unlikely.
Negligible	No credible intent, minimal capability, or no meaningful opportunity.

Example assessment statement

"We assess the threat level from APT41 to European pharmaceutical companies as HIGH (confidence: high). APT41 has demonstrated intent through active reconnaissance (observed since November 2025), possesses advanced capability including zero-day exploitation, and the sector presents significant opportunity due to widespread legacy VPN infrastructure."

Risk Assessment

Purpose: Evaluate the potential impact of a threat materialising.

Formula: Risk = Threat × Vulnerability × Impact

Structure

1. Threat (reference or summarise from threat assessment)

• Threat level from threat assessment
• Key threat characteristics

2. Vulnerability — How exposed is the target?

• Technical vulnerabilities (CVEs, misconfigurations)
• Process vulnerabilities (gaps in detection, response)
• Human vulnerabilities (social engineering susceptibility)
• Supply chain vulnerabilities

3. Impact — What happens if the threat materialises?

• Operational impact (business disruption, data loss)
• Financial impact (direct costs, regulatory fines, market impact)
• Reputational impact (customer trust, brand damage)
• Strategic impact (competitive advantage, IP loss)
• Impact severity: Critical / High / Moderate / Low / Negligible

4. Combined Risk Level

Use a risk matrix:

	Negligible Impact	Low Impact	Moderate Impact	High Impact	Critical Impact
Critical Threat	Moderate	High	Very High	Very High	Very High
High Threat	Low	Moderate	High	Very High	Very High
Moderate Threat	Low	Low	Moderate	High	Very High
Low Threat	Very Low	Low	Low	Moderate	High
Negligible Threat	Very Low	Very Low	Low	Low	Moderate

Example assessment statement

"The risk of APT41 compromising sensitive R&D data is assessed as VERY HIGH (confidence: moderate). The high threat level (demonstrated intent and capability) combined with critical impact (loss of proprietary pharmaceutical research valued at €500M+) and significant vulnerability (unpatched VPN appliances matching APT41's known initial access vector) drive this assessment."

Vulnerability Assessment

Purpose: Evaluate the exploitability and impact of a specific vulnerability.

Formula: Vulnerability Severity = Exposure + Susceptibility − Resilience

Structure

1. Vulnerability Description

• CVE identifier (if applicable)
• Affected systems/software
• Technical description of the vulnerability

2. Exposure — How visible/accessible is the vulnerable system?

• Internet-facing vs internal only
• Number of affected systems
• Public availability of exploit code (PoC, weaponised)

3. Susceptibility — How easy is it to exploit?

• CVSS base score
• EPSS (Exploit Prediction Scoring System) score
• Technical complexity of exploitation
• Authentication requirements
• Known exploitation in the wild (CISA KEV listing)

4. Resilience — What mitigations exist?

• Patch availability
• Compensating controls
• Detection capability (do we have rules for this?)
• Recovery capability

5. Prioritisation

Priority	Criteria
P1 — Patch immediately	Actively exploited OR high EPSS + internet-facing + no compensating controls
P2 — Patch within 72h	PoC available + internet-facing OR actively exploited + internal with compensating controls
P3 — Patch within 30 days	High CVSS + no active exploitation + compensating controls in place
P4 — Patch in next cycle	Moderate CVSS + internal only + compensating controls
P5 — Accept risk	Low CVSS + internal only + strong compensating controls + low impact

General Assessment Writing Rules

1. Always state the assessment explicitly — "We assess that..." not "It appears that..."
2. Always include confidence level — Per confidence-levels skill
3. Always use likelihood language — Per likelihood-language skill for future-looking statements
4. Always identify key assumptions — What must be true for this assessment to hold?
5. Always separate facts from judgments — Per intelligence-writing skill
6. Never hedge-stack — Pick one likelihood band, don't combine ("likely or highly likely")
7. Always include temporal scope — "Over the next 12 months" not "in the future"