Budget Planning — Ngan Sach Marketing

Budget khong phai con so co dinh — la cong cu ra quyet dinh: dat cuoc vao dau, rut ve khi nao. Leader phai biet: tong dang tieu bao nhieu, ROI tung kenh la gi, cai nao can tang, cai nao can cat. Goi 10-tinh-kpi-nguoc de tinh budget toi thieu tu revenue target truoc khi phan bo.

Thu thap thong tin

Doc .agents/product-marketing-context.md, ke hoach marketing va report ky truoc neu co. Neu thieu, hoi toi da 4 cau:

1. Budget tong va ky ke hoach? Tong bao nhieu, cho thang / quy / nam?
2. Revenue target ky nay? De tinh marketing % of revenue va budget toi thieu.
3. Kenh dang chay va ROI ky truoc? Meta / TikTok / Google / Zalo / Email / Agency — kenh nao ROAS/CPL tot nhat?
4. Co campaign lon nao can reserve budget khong? Launch, Tet, seasonal peak?

Nguyen tac

1. Budget follow performance — khong cung nhac theo plan ban dau. Kenh work → tang; kenh khong work → cat.
2. Luon giu 10-15% reserve — khong allocate het ngay dau ky. Reserve dung cho co hoi bat ngo hoac su co.
3. Moi dong chi ra phai co KPI do duoc — khong co "branding khong do duoc".
4. Khong phan bo deu — tap trung vao kenh work nhat; kenh moi chi cap budget test toi thieu (10-15%) truoc.
5. Tinh nguoc tu doanh thu, khong tu kenh — budget la ket qua cua bai toan revenue, khong phai con so tuy hung.

Quy trinh

Buoc 1 — Chon phuong phap thiet lap budget

Phuong phap	Cach tinh	Uu diem	Nhuoc diem
% Doanh thu	Budget = X% doanh thu ky vong	Don gian	Khong phan anh giai doan tang truong
Tinh nguoc tu muc tieu (khuyen dung)	Dat doanh thu → tinh nguoc CAC/CPL	Logic, co can cu	Can biet CAC/CPL lich su
Theo doi thu	Benchmark ngan sach nganh	Tranh under-invest	Khong phan anh dieu kien rieng

Cong thuc tinh nguoc 7 buoc (chi tiet dung 10-tinh-kpi-nguoc):

1. Doanh thu muc tieu
2. / AOV                      = So don can
3. / CVR chot (30-50%)        = So hot lead can
4. / CVR nurture (50-60%)     = So warm lead can
5. / CVR thu lead (20-40%)    = Tong reach can
6. Tong lead x CPL            = Budget ads toi thieu
7. + Content + Tool + Agency  = Total marketing budget

Lap 3 scenario: Conservative (CVR thap hon TB nganh, CPL cao hon) · Base case (bang TB nganh) · Optimistic (sau khi toi uu). Ke hoach chinh dung Base, chuan bi tam ly bang Conservative.

Buoc 2 — Phan bo tong quan theo bucket

Bucket	% goi y	Muc dich
Paid Ads (Performance)	50-65%	Meta, TikTok, Google, Zalo
Content Production	10-15%	Video, design, copywriting
KOL / KOC / Seeding	5-10%	Social proof, UGC
Agency / Freelancer	Theo scope	Neu co
Tools / Software	2-5%	Ads tools, design tools, email/CRM
Campaign Reserve (du phong)	10-15%	Co hoi bat ngo / su co — KHONG allocate truoc

Buoc 3 — Phan bo theo kenh

Benchmark SME Vietnam (dieu chinh theo nganh va data rieng):

Kenh	% ngan sach ads	Objective	Expected CPL/ROAS
Meta Ads (FB + IG)	50-60%	Lead / Purchase
TikTok Ads	15-20%	Awareness / Lead
Google Ads / SEO	10-15%	Search intent
Zalo Ads / OA	5-10%	Retarget / Local / Nurture
Kenh moi (test)	10-15%	Validate

Logic phan bo: kenh dang co ROAS/CPL tot → tang ti trong; kenh moi → budget test toi thieu truoc; khong phan bo deu.

Buoc 4 — Phan bo theo funnel va ti le test vs scale

Budget split chuan performance trong tung kenh:

Muc dich	%	Ghi chu
Testing (creative + audience moi)	30%	Luon co dong test — creative fatigue den nhanh
Scale (winner da xac nhan)	50%	Chi scale campaign co data thang
Retargeting	15%	Warm audience — CPL re nhat funnel
Lookalike	5%	Mo rong tu tep converter

Theo funnel: TOFU (reach/awareness) — MOFU (lead/nurture) — BOFU (conversion/retarget) — ti le tuy giai doan: launch nghieng TOFU, mature nghieng BOFU + retention.

Buoc 5 — Phan bo theo campaign va thang

Campaign	Thang	Budget	Objective	KPI
Always-on (retarget + nurture)	Ca ky
Campaign A (launch/seasonal)
Testing budget	Ca ky		Thu kenh / angle moi
Reserve	—	10-15%

Buoc 6 — Nguong tang / cat budget (decision rules)

Tang budget khi (du CA 2 dieu kien):

• ROAS > target x 1.5 trong >= 7 ngay lien tiep, HOAC CPL < target x 0.7 va volume du
• Audience chua bao hoa (frequency < 2.5)
• Muc tang: +20-30% moi lan, khong gap doi dot ngot

Cat / pause budget khi (nguong cat lo):

Dieu kien	Hanh dong
ROAS < break-even sau 14 ngay	Cat kenh/campaign, chuyen budget sang kenh work
CPL > target x 2 sau 7 ngay test	Pause, thay creative/audience truoc khi bat lai
Frequency > 4	Audience saturation — dung scale, refresh creative
Spend > 110% ke hoach thang	Cap daily budget, review lai phan bo

Vi du CPL rule hang tuan (nganh dich vu local — can chinh theo AOV cua ban): CPL < 12K & freq < 2.0 → WIN, scale +20-30% · 12-15K → acceptable, theo doi · 15-18K & freq 2.0-2.5 → optimize, thay creative · > 18K & freq > 2.5 → PAUSE, replace.

Khong bao gio tang budget khi CPL dang xau — fix creative/tracking truoc.

Buoc 7 — Tracker va review cadence

Budget tracker theo thang:

Thang	Budget plan	Thuc chi	Variance	ROAS/ROI	Ghi chu
Thang 1
Thang 2
Thang 3
Tong quy

Review cadence:

Nhip	Viec	Output
Hang tuan	Xem CPL/ROAS tung kenh — ap decision rules Buoc 6	Dieu chinh ngay neu cham nguong
Hang thang	Review tong phan bo, budget reconciliation plan vs actual	Rebalance cho thang sau
Hang quy	Review chien luoc phan bo tong the, LTV:CAC	Dieu chinh strategy

Suc khoe don vi kinh te — LTV:CAC:

Ti le	Y nghia	Hanh dong
< 1:1	Dang lo tren moi khach	Dung scale, fix product/price
1:1 → 3:1	Hoa von den kha thi	Toi uu conversion, tang AOV
> 3:1	Healthy	Bat dau scale
> 5:1	Rat tot	Tang ngan sach ads manh

Cau truc ket qua

Ten file: budget-plan-[ten-thuong-hieu]-[YYYYMMDD].md — gom: I. Budget overview (tong, revenue target, marketing % of revenue, ky) · II. Phan bo bucket · III. Phan bo kenh · IV. Test vs scale split · V. Phan bo campaign/thang · VI. Decision rules + nguong cat lo · VII. Tracker · VIII. Review cadence.

Lien ket skill

• 10-tinh-kpi-nguoc: tinh budget toi thieu tu revenue target — chay truoc buoc phan bo.
• 00-ke-hoach-mkt: budget plan la Phan 4 chi tiet hoa cua ke hoach tong.
• 54-media-plan: trien khai budget ads thanh media plan cu the theo campaign/adset.
• 55-scaling-ads: quy trinh scale khi cham nguong tang budget.
• 21-audit-ads-performance: audit khi kenh cham nguong cat lo lien tuc.
• 07-bao-cao-marketing: budget reconciliation trong report thang.

Checklist chat luong

• Budget tinh nguoc tu revenue target, co 3 scenario
• Co du 3 lop phan bo: bucket → kenh → campaign/thang
• Ti le test vs scale ro rang (Testing 30 / Scale 50 / Retarget 15 / LAL 5)
• Reserve 10-15% duoc giu lai, khong allocate truoc
• Nguong tang va nguong cat lo co con so cu the (ROAS, CPL, frequency, so ngay)
• Kenh moi chi nhan budget test 10-15%
• Moi dong budget co KPI do duoc di kem
• Co tracker plan vs actual theo thang
• Review cadence tuan/thang/quy co output ro
• LTV:CAC duoc kiem tra truoc khi quyet dinh scale